Following very calm and steady trading days, where Bitcoin couldn’t overcome the significant 200-days moving average line (marked light green on the following daily chart), the recent hours saw Bitcoin breaking down below $8000 for the first time in the past ten days.
Many see the market as bearish as long as Bitcoin is trading below the mentioned MA-200. After several failures trying to break back above the moving average line, Bitcoin had gone away from the area, and now trading more than 10% below the significant line.
As of now, the coin found support on-top the short-term ascending trend-line (shown on the following 4-hour chart. However, the situation is very choppy.
Following a week of dull trading, with minor volume and low interest in Bitcoin as seen by Google trends, the cryptocurrency is anticipating a huge move.
Most of the crypto community think that it’s time to explore new bottoms, but as we already notice, the majority is wrong. It doesn’t mean that BTC will not visit lower areas, but before calling out the bears, there are some more indicators to watch.
Total Market Cap: $216 billion
Bitcoin Market Cap: $144 billion
BTC Dominance Index: 66.5% (Since its 2-year high at 72% a month ago, the altcoins are getting stronger)
*Data by CoinGecko
Key Levels to Watch
Looking on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s nearest support level is the marked ascending trend-line precisely at the current daily low ($7920). Further below is the $7800 level, which was the low of the past week. Below is $7700, which supported Bitcoin twice so far, since its negative momentum starting September 26.
In case of a breakdown, we will expect to see Bitcoin reaching quickly to $7500, and from there, the next target is the significant level of $7200, which is the Golden Fibonacci level (61.8%) since the all-time high.
In case Bitcoin finds support around these levels, the nearest resistance will be support turned resistance level at $8000 and $8200. The next level from above is the MA-50 on the 4-hour (marked purple) along with the short-term descending trend-line (around $8300).
– The RSI Indicator (Daily): The indicator is maybe the sole positive light, as the higher lows trajectory so far being kept alive. The RSI is now facing a key support level around 33-34, along with an ascending line of support.
In our previous analysis, we had mentioned the bearish crossover of the Stochastic RSI oscillator. Since then, Bitcoin had lost more than 5%, and unfortunately, by looking at the oscillator, there’s more room to move down.
– The Trading Volume: As mentioned in the last analysis: ‘One of the reasons that the breakout from two days ago (to $8800) turned to be fake is the lack of buyers’ volume.” The bulls need to come back in order to turn the market to the positive side. So far, the volume is in favor of the sellers. However, despite the recent action, the past days were very dull in means of volume, as stated above.
BTC/USD BitStamp 4-Hour Chart
BTC/USD BitStamp 1-Day Chart
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Source: Crypto Potato