New Research Shows Why The Bitcoin Price May Skyrocket Later This Year

A new research note from crypto prime dealer SFOX indicates there may be a correlation between the bitcoin price and holidays, at least during pronounced bull runs. The note from the SFOX research team points to 2017’s massive rally in the crypto asset market around Thanksgiving and Christmas in the United States and a more recent price increase during China’s Spring Festival this year as two examples of this phenomenon.

According to the research note, the main theory behind the reasoning for the holidays’ effect on the bitcoin price has to do with FOMO (fear of missing out).

“Part of the narrative surrounding this unprecedented bull run [in late 2017] was that many people were hearing about Bitcoin for the first time: over Thanksgiving dinner, the story goes, Luddites in the family would ask the more tech-savvy among them about this ‘Bitcoin’ they’d seen in mainstream news — and how could they purchase some ‘Bitcoin coins’ for themselves?” says the note.

Bitcoin Price FOMO in Late 2017 and Early 2019

During the time from November 12, 2017 to December 17, 2017, the bitcoin price increased from $6,030.53 to $19,205.93. The vast majority of this growth in the bitcoin price came after the Thanksgiving holiday. Brief recoveries in the bitcoin price were also seen in the days after Christmas and New Year’s Eve.

As a recent report from Delphi Digital pointed out, this sort of theoretical retail investment interest is still the main driver of the bitcoin price in 2019. Notably, Delphi Digital also released a bullish report regarding the bitcoin price prior to this most recent bull run.

The research note from SFOX also points out that a sustained rise in the bitcoin price occurred during the Spring Festival celebrated in China back in February of this year. During this time, the bitcoin price rose 14% from $3,419.17 to $3,908.97. The price then continued to rise over the $4,000 mark before settling back down to the $3,750 range in the days after the holiday season.

SFOX’s research team also notes that these rises in the bitcoin price coincided with increased search volume for “bitcoin” on Google.

The research note adds that there isn’t a large amount of data to go on in terms of how holidays affect the bitcoin price due to the fact that late 2017 was the first time the asset had become sufficiently relevant enough to cause discussions to take place around the topic between friends and family members over the holidays. That said, the note also adds…

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Bold Bitcoin Price Predictions For 2019 End

With half of 2019 already gone, here is a look at how the customary Bitcoin price forecasts have fared.


First Half of 2019 for Bitcoin

On the calendar, 2019 comes after 2018 but in crypto history, the year will undoubtedly be of far greater significance. Reason? Well, 2018 was something of a long winter for virtual currencies with prices falling by more than 80% across the board.

Many commentators had spent 2018 providing extremely positive price predictions on the back of a bullish late 2017 run. Bitcoin fell from $19,800 to $3,100 and altcoins saw red.

Perhaps in 2018, people wouldn’t be so eager to offer price forecasts, but alas they were. Not at first though because the Q1 2019 saw not much excitement in the market.

When not releasing their pseudo-cryptocurrency, JPMorgan spent Q1 2019 calling BTC at $2,400 fair value and saying the top-ranked crypto was only useful in a dystopia. From a price action perspective, it was dull until April Fool’s day.

April 1, 2019, triggers a full-blown rally that sees bitcoin cross $4,000, topping out at $8,000 a month-and-a-half later. Since then, it has been upwards with a few 30% declines along the way, and now BTC is up 220% in the first half of 2019.

In Q1 2019, commentators seemed prepared to stick to talking points like fundamentals without giving price forecasts. Since April Fool’s day, however, the price bets have come out in force.

Bitcoin YTD

From $10,000 to $40,000

Perennial bitcoin price forecaster Tom Lee of Fundstrat Global Advisors has moved from a conservative $10,000 to a more bullish $40,000 forecast in the space of three months. To be fair to Lee, he always did say 2019 would be positive for bitcoin.

The Fundstrat chief’s $10,000 prediction came to pass in June 2019. With the $10K mark attained, Lee believes this price milestone will trigger a FOMO-driven hype among retail investors taking BTC to $40,000 before the end of the year.

Others like Max Keiser also predicted that bitcoin would hit $10,000 back when the rise above $6,400 was still the 2019 high. Before any of these price calls, however, Weiss Ratings did say BTC would reach a new ATH in 2019.

Like Lee, Keiser also upped his short-term price bet from $10,000 to $28,000 at the end of May 2019. Keiser based his forecast on the situation in Europe saying BTC will set a new ATH in 2019.

For Keiser, the main goal isn’t even a new ATH but a six-digit price valuation that takes bitcoin’s market capitalization into the trillion-dollar arena on similar levels with commodities like gold.

Beyond 2019

Some commentators also added to the list of future price calls. The stock to flow, price models, predicts a BTC price of $55,000 by 2020.

The 2020 halving constitutes an integral part of many of these new future price bets with the expectation of BTC continuing its parabolic advance in the lead up to the block reward halving.

As always, there are the naysayers, “bitcoin is going to zero” brigade whose forecasts end up being more laughable than Lee’s $25k end-of-year price call for 2017. JPMorgan says BTC is overpriced, Nouriel Roubini, like a broken record never fails to bring up the $0 prediction.

What is your end of year price forecast for Bitcoin? Let us know in the comments below.


Images via Tradingview

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Source: Bitcoininst

Bitcoin Price Analysis: 7 Day Correction Comes To An End

Bitcoin has seen a correction in price action from the yearly high just shy of $14,000 down to $9,600 predicted in my previous analysis just a few days ago. Descending channel has broken to the upside within the last 24 hours resulting in price levels returning back to POC (Point of Control) around $11,300.


Bitcoin 30-Minute Chart

BTC on the 30 minute chart clearly shows the most recently formed descending channel. The price action has seen bearish momentum come to a crashing stop around $9,800 as bulls regain control and force a breakout to the upside. The current market price is sitting around visible range POC and 0.382 retracement fib level, where it is now increasingly likely to rise back up to yearly highs over the coming weeks of July.

The most recent breakout should provide confidence again for buyers, and eventually escalate into FOMO.

We could see Altcoins struggle to show any promising opportunities to enter whilst BTC continues on upwards.

Minimize Risk, Maximize Potential on Your Entries/ Exits

entry

The best method to catch dip entries and breakout entries on both Bitcoin and other altcoins, is known as ”scaling”, where a trader buys/sells in small increments over a period of time to achieve the best dollar cost average. Typically, this is seen on larger time scales for traditional markets like the stock market, however, this technique works wonders for managing risk when trading crypto within shorter time frames.

The primary reason for implementing a dollar cost average technique, when entering or exiting market positions, is to minimize risk by neutralizing short term volatility. However, this routine method also removes irrational and emotional decision making from the process.

By scaling in and out of the market, a trader allows his/herself the ability to stop worrying about the market and intra-minute / intra-hour chop, because they are executing a pre-defined strategy.

There is no set in stone % that a trader should be scaling out at either price point. However, off-loading 25% of their position at each (3) profit targets leaves them with the remaining 10/25% of their full position still in the coin, should they think the price will go higher.

The whole idea behind ”scaling” in and out of market positions is to average in the best cost-effective entry whilst managing risk. This allows a trader to adopt a flow with the market and stagger their entries into three positions, as opposed to going ‘all in’ on one point. This is called ”running with the trend”, where a trader is simply buying as the trade goes in their favor.

This means if the crypto asset ”fakes out” and dumps, a trader will only lose on a % of their full intended market position.

Adversely, when you scale out of your position (taking profit, or stop loss) you allow the trade room to grow instead of panicking and taking profit too early, setting out clear profit/exit points take away the emotional decision making (panic selling).

Do you use dollar cost averaging as a part of your trading plan? Let us know in the comment section below!


Images courtesy of Tradingview, Shutterstock

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Source: Bitcoininst

Bitcoin

These 3 Facts About Bitcoin Will Make You Stop and Think

We know it’s hard but take your eyes away from the price action for one minute. Now check out these three amazing facts about Bitcoin that will make you stop and think.

1. Less Than 1% of the Population Uses Bitcoin

The wild ride that Bitcoin has taken us on over the years has been dramatic. Horrifying, intense, elating, and crushing all at once. 

But while many of us are glued to the price action, it’s easy to forget that the sweeping majority of the world don’t have a clue what Bitcoin even is.

Let that sink in for a moment. There were just 32 million wallets registered as of Q1 2019. That’s less than 1% of the entire global population using Bitcoin.

While Bitcoin may be all-consuming for you, keep in mind that you’re still part of a very small club. Facebook may be the corporation that takes cryptocurrency to the masses and eventually brings them accross. But there’s still a very, very long way to go before Bitcoin becomes massive.

2. Bitcoin Can Help Half the World Fight Against Oppression

There are currently 49 dictatorship countries in the world. That represents around 50% of the global population. Almost four billion lives that Bitcoin could help to change.

These are mostly people who have no say in the dilution of their national currency, censorship of the media, or access to bank accounts. 

China may have banned people trading cryptocurrency, but Bitcoin is unbannable. You can’t ban open-source distributed software. Even if the internet is shut down, you can send Bitcoin via SMS or beam the network down via satellite.

3. There Are More Hashes Than Grains of Sand

more bitcoin hashes than sand

bitcoin

Still, think it’s all about the price volatility? According to Blockchain.com, the Bitcoin network hash rate just reached an all-time high at 69 quintillion hashes per second. 

If that sounds like a rather large number, that’s because it is. Some 10 times the number of grains of sand on Earth in fact. That may leave your mind blown or it may leave you wondering who’s ever counted the grains of sand. Either way, it’s pretty impressive indeed. 

Facts About Bitcoin – The Takeaway

While it may seem like it’s all about the price especially in recent weeks, there are plenty of facts about Bitcoin that highlight just how special it is. And how early on in the game we are.

Satoshi’s creation could help more than four billion people around the world escape dictatorial regimes. It could change the way people think about money and provide them financial freedom. But they have to be made aware of it first. There are still many obstacles to face. 

You might wake up today disheartened by the 11% 24-hour drop. But keep in mind that beyond the hype and speculation, Bitcoin has real power.

Do you think Bitcoin is wonderful and can redefine human lives? Share your thoughts in the comments below. 


Images courtesy of Shutterstock

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Source: Bitcoininst

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Could Drop to $9,000 Soon

Overhead descending resistance forming on Bitcoin could develop a descending channel taking price levels down to $9,000 over the coming week. This would allow for sideways consolidation to take place around $9,000, which is a key historical psychological support/resistance level allowing volume to rush back into the Altcoin market.


Bitcoin 4-Hour Chart

Bitcoin

On the Bitcoin 4hour chart we can begin to see a descending channel forming. This is not yet confirmed as there’s only 2 out of 3 needed points of contact from candlesticks to my predicted channel support and resistance. Descending volume would align nicely with a pull-back to $9,000 region around the 200EMA confirming the descending channel.

My short term price prediction for the next few days is evidently bearish, given the expected pullback, however, a pullback to $9,000 forming the descending channel would still keep the current uptrend intact. It’s highly likely once the descending channel has been formed there will be a breakout to the upside that attempts to form new highs. Descending channels formed during an uptrend are inherently bullish.

Consolidation within the predicted descending wedge would likely allow Altcoins room for short-term growth. Overall, a pullback would be nothing to be scared of, as stated in this previous analysis. and is much needed to sustain the current uptrend, whilst allowing Altcoins to bounce off their historical supports that many of them are currently resting on.


Bitcoin Weekly Chart

On the BTC weekly chart we can see ascending volume, the opposite to what we can see on the 4 hour chart. This accompanied by the fact that there’s been no red weekly candles since February of 2019 is a great indication that a brief pullback is needed. POC (Point of Control) sits around $6,200, this is also where the CM Super Guppy indicator has flashed green, meaning there’s a significant amount of support, and large orders resting against the market around this price point.

It’s highly unlikely price levels will drop below the $6,200 mark, I would consider this the critical support level, meaning if this is broken the overall uptrend for BTC is also broken and would be a significant sell signal. Key support levels to look out for between current market price and critical support are $9,500, $8,000, and $6,800. There’s a significant chance BTC will wick down extremely fast to liquidate longs, and cause panic across the market before regaining traction, this has happened before every bull phase in BTC history, thus something every trader should prepare for.

MACD has clearly crossed the median to the upside as a result of the most recent uptrend. It’s likely a pullback will cause MACD to move sideways during this period before turning up again. BTC dominance is currently 61.9%, I expect a pullback will take BTC dominance back to 55-57% region, which is the percentage that sustained the previous altcoin bull phase throughout Q4 of 2017. The current overall Crypto market cap is sitting around $333,000,000, this will need to continue steadily increasing towards the $500,000,000 mark to really allow Altcoins to flourish, whilst BTC begins it’s brief pullback.

Do you think BTC will hold above critical support at $6,200? please share your thoughts and comments below!


Images courtesy of Tradingview.com, Shutterstock 

The post Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Could Drop to $9,000 Soon appeared first on Bitcoinist.com.

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Bitcoin

Is Another Cryptocurrency Bubble Ready To Burst?

The price of Bitcoin plunged Thursday after major cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase suffered an outage. It comes after Bitcoin and related digital currencies and stocks staged a powerful prolonged rally after last week’s Facebook (FB) announcement that it is entering the crypto space.

Bitcoin prices soared as high as $13,844.77 on Wednesday but plunged as low as $10,373 on Thursday.

At the latest posting time, prices were down 22% to $10,792.44, according to CoinDesk.

The last time the Bitcoin price topped $13,000 was in December 2017, the same month it reached its all-time high of $19,511 before a spectacular collapse in value.

The fall in Bitcoin price could partly be attributed to an outage on popular cryptocurrency trading platform Coinbase. A Coinbase spokesperson told CNBC the site was down “for a short period of time due to high volume.” However this may merely be a symptom of extreme downward pressure brought on by users trying to cash out of Bitcoin when the price is highest.

On Wednesday, after Bitcoin rallied roughly 40% since Friday, IBD warned the digital currency was flashing signs of a possible climax run.

Other digital currencies also fell sharply Thursday. Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Ripple (also known as XRP) all suffered double-digit losses after strong gains Wednesday.

Among Bitcoin- and blockchain-related stocks, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) tumbled 19% on the stock market today, after spiking 15% Wednesday. Overstock.com (OSTK) fell 3.6% after Wednesday’s 25% moonshot. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) was down 21% after popping 14%.

Facebook stock rose 1%…

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Bitcoin

Is Bitcoin Being Stockpiled As A Reserve Asset, By A Large Nation?

Bitcoin has outperformed nearly every other traditional asset this year. With an epic surge of almost 270% in 2019 the FOMO has been palpable; almost something you can physically touch. Something huge could be driving it, like one nation including BTC as a reserve asset, or it could just be the nature of things on crypto markets.


Bitcoin Volatility High But Momentum Remains

Major volatility has returned to the crypto markets over the past week. Bitcoin started out on Monday trading at just over $10k after breaking this psychological barrier. Since then the king of crypto has surged a mind-blowing 30% to top out at $13,800 a few hours ago.

What followed can only be described as a flash crash, dumping $2k in less than 2 hours. Bitcoin rapidly shrugged it off however and quickly returned back to just below $13k where it currently trades 00.

Many have been looking for solid fundamentals to explain this monumental momentum. Economist and trader Alex Krüger hypothesized that one major nation could be stocking up on BTC in preparations to use it as a reserve asset.

“$BTC is trading as if a large nation were about to announce the inclusion of bitcoin as a reserve asset. That’s how bullish price action has been. The buying pressure during the Asian session was extraordinary.”

For most days this week trading during the Asian session has dominated proceedings for markets around the globe. The US has simply picked up what Asia started, leading Bitcoin prices ever higher.

BTC As A Reserve Currency

Considering the actions of US President Donald Trump recently, Asian countries and the Middle East would do well to distance themselves from the greenback and consider an alternative reserve currency. The US is now dishing out sanctions like candy, trade wars which in turn are creating unprecedented levels of protectionism and economic upheaval, with local currencies being depreciated. The USD is currently down against many of the world’s major currencies and stock markets have also been rocky recently.

Smart nation states wanting to hedge on a truly decentralized and global currency would be looking at buying and holding Bitcoin. The list of those wanting to distance from the dollar is growing and includes Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela, and of course rogue states such as North Korea.

Once the first nation announces that it is officially accumulating BTC a cascade effect is likely to follow as others follow suit. At the moment this is all hypothetical but for those looking for an explanation of the recent surge, this could be a part of it.

Which country is most likely to be accumulating Bitcoin? Add your thoughts below


Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Alex Kruger

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Source: Bitcoininst

5 theories behind bitcoin’s dizzying rally above $13,500

  • Bitcoin has tripled in price in under three months, from $4,000 at the start of April to over $12,500.
  • The cryptocurrency has surged by more than a third in the past week.
  • Rising mainstream interest, geopolitical tensions, expansionary monetary policy, a supply cut next year, and bitcoin whales may be responsible.
  • Watch bitcoin trade live.

Bitcoin has tripled in price in under three months, from $4,000 at the start of April to over $12,500. After soaring to a record high of nearly $20,000 in December 2017 then plummeting below $3,300 last December, the cryptocurrency has now recovered more than half its losses. It has surged by more than a third in the past week.

Rising mainstream interest, geopolitical tensions, expansionary monetary policy, a supply cut next year, and bitcoin whales may be responsible for the cryptocurrency’s breathless rise. We examine each factor below.

Cryptocurrency is going mainstream

Bitcoin is benefiting from broader interest in cryptocurrencies. Facebook partnered with Visa, PayPal, Uber, Spotify, and other companies to launch Libra this month, a digital coin intended to simplify online payments and purchases.

Asset manager Fidelity has begun buying and selling bitcoin for institutions, online broker TD Ameritrade rolled out trading of Bitcoin futures in December, and securities brokerage E*Trade is close to introducing cryptocurrency trading on its platform.

“The primary drivers behind bitcoin’s turbo-charged appreciation revolve around growing optimism over the cryptocurrency being accepted by the mainstream,” said Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM. “Libra has sweetened appetite towards bitcoin.”

However, he warned the cryptocurrency’s gains aren’t guaranteed to stick.

“Lessons from the past have illustrated how unpredictable non-traditional financial instruments like bitcoin can be,” Otunuga said. “With explosively volatile moves being nothing new in the world of cryptocurrency, bitcoin could still experience periods where it finds itself under sudden…

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Contrarian View: 3 Reasons Bitcoin Is Fundamentally Flawed as an Investment

It’s back… and I’m not talking about the mosquito invasion on the back porch that comes with summer solstice.

After a miserable 2018 that saw leading cryptocurrency bitcoin (CCC: BTC-USD) lose around 80% of its value, 2019 has been a completely different story for the digital token. On a year-to-date basis through Saturday evening, June 22, bitcoin had returned 176%, which is about a ninefold better return than the broad-based S&P 500 on a year-to-date basis. After being within striking distance of the $10,000 level for weeks, bitcoin blew through this psychological level and wound up briefly surpassing $11,200 per token.

The big question is, “Why?” Why is bitcoin suddenly finding success after more than a year of wallowing in the doldrums? The answer lies with a host of factors, rather than just a single catalyst.

Bitcoin soars past $11,000

To begin with, bitcoin’s block reward is expected to be halved on May 21, 2020. Cryptocurrency miners — i.e., people and businesses with high-powered computers that solve complex math equations to prove the validity of crypto transactions on a blockchain — feast on these rewards, which are currently paid out as 12.5 bitcoin tokens per block of transactions proofed. At today’s price, that works out to close to $135,000 per bitcoin block reward. But with this reward being halved in May 2020 to 6.25 bitcoin per block solved, investors and miners have historically bid up the digital token about a year in advance of a halving event.

Another reason bitcoin investors are excited is the possibility of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) allowing a bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) on a major U.S. exchange. The SEC has delayed its decision on a bitcoin ETF on multiple occasions, but announced in early April that it wanted to hire a cryptocurrency specialist to help with implementing regulations. This move, along with the SEC currently taking comments and rebuttals on a bitcoin ETF, suggests that the prospects of a bitcoin ETF hitting the U.S. major exchanges are improving.

The recent announcement that social media giant Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) would be creating its own crypto token, known as Libra, is also encouraging to bitcoin investors. Facebook has 2.38 billion monthly active users, and there’s a really good bet that most of them have little or no clue what blockchain is. Libra is a means of educating the world about the potential for the digital ledger known as blockchain, as well as the utility of cryptocurrency tokens. Facebook plans to launch its new digital token next year, and the buzz leading up to this launch may drive bitcoin higher…

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Trade Bitcoin? Here’s Why You Absolutely Need to Also Buy Gold

Other than technical analysis, which can assist in finding buy and sell points, crypto traders are beholden to the whims of other traders.

This is particularly true for bitcoin because its value isn’t tied to any asset, which would give it some framework for intrinsic value.

Traders are making decisions based on what they think someone else believes bitcoin to be worth in a specific moment, which is in turn based on that person’s beliefs about other people’s psychology.

Bitcoin traders are thus wise to use any kind of hedge that they can find.

For the past few months, one such hedge has been, ironically, gold – and not the “digital” kind.

Gold Seems to Be a Partial Crypto Market Hedge

Late last year, deep in the throes of “crypto winter,” the bitcoin price cratered 50 percent, barely maintaining the $3,000 level heading into mid-December.

bitcoin price crash

Bitcoin crashes in late 2018. | Source: Yahoo Finance

Here’s gold over the same period. The yellow metal rallied from $1,210 per ounce to $1,338 all the way into February.

gold price rally

Gold rises over the same period.| Source: Yahoo Finance

If one had purchased an equivalent absolute dollar amount of each, meaning about a 5-to-1 ratio of gold to bitcoin, a $3,000 BTC loss would have been offset by about a $635 increase in gold. That’s nearly 20 percent.

The bitcoin whale rally that began when gold topped out in late February ran from $4,000 to about $9,000 earlier this month (It has since exploded above $11,000 to set a new yearly high)…

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