Bitcoin Remains on Hunt for $10K as Holding Sentiment Gains Strength

The seven-day moving average of the total amount of bitcoin held in exchange addresses declined to 2,313,749 on Sunday – the lowest level since December 2018, according to data from blockchain intelligence firm Glassnode.

Exchange balances have declined by nearly 13% over the last four months – a change indicative of a shift to a long-term holding strategy. “This could be related to more investors HODLing [holding], moving their funds to cold storage and/or keys they control themselves,” cryptocurrency exchange Luno noted in a weekly email update.

glassnode-studio_bitcoin-exchange-balance-7-d-moving-average-1

Investors tend to move cryptocurrency from their wallets to exchanges to be able to more quickly liquidate holdings during a price crash or when they expect a price rally to be short-lived.

However, bitcoin’s price rise from the March low of $3,867 has been accompanied by a decline in exchange balances.

Further, the metric has been dropping over the last four weeks despite the cryptocurrency’s repeated failure to establish a strong foothold above $10,000 and lackluster, range-bound trading.

As such, it seems likely investors expect the ongoing price consolidation to pave the way for a stronger bull run and are holding on to their investments in the hope of bigger gains to come.

The prospects of a continued upward move look strong, as the diverging trends in bitcoin’s price and exchange balances seen this year are the opposite of what we saw in the second quarter of 2019. At that time, exchange balances rose along with prices, suggesting a lack of confidence in a longer rally.

glassnode-studio_bitcoin-exchange-balance-7-d-moving-average-2

As the cryptocurrency rallied from $7,900 to $13,800 in the five weeks to June 26, 2019, the seven-day moving average of exchange balances increased by nearly 6%. But bitcoin’s uptrend ran out of steam in the following two weeks, and prices had dropped to $8,000 by the end of September. The slide continued in the fourth quarter with prices hitting lows below $6,500.

This time round, it seems, investors are more confident.

At press time, bitcoin is changing hands near…

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Bitcoin Price $75K ‘Within Weeks’? Recovery Mimics 2013 700% Bull Run

Bitcoin (BTC) is looking like it will hit $75,000 — and that could happen “within weeks,” one analyst has found.

Uploading a fresh BTC/USD price chart to Twitter on June 7, Cane Island Alternative Advisors’ Timothy Peterson unearthed an uncanny similarity to Bitcoin in 2013.

Peterson eyes “almost perfect” 2013 correlation

Tracking Bitcoin’s price recovery from its lows of $3,600 in mid-March, Peterson noted that its recovery almost exactly tracked price action from seven years ago.

The result, he argued, could keep up the copycat move — BTC topped out at $1,300 in 2013, and a similar 700% bull run at today’s prices would give a target of $75,000.

“The 2020 #bitcoin recovery has tracked the 2013a recovery almost perfectly,” he summarized.

“Are we weeks away from $75,000?”

Bitcoin price chart showing various recoveries

Bitcoin price chart showing various recoveries. Source: Timothy Peterson/ Twitter

The Mt. Gox factor

While such a spike seems unlikely, Bitcoin is already exhibiting strong signs that it is in recovery mode from lows which will never reappear.

Specifically, miner activity and associated data have mimicked December 2018, when Bitcoin bounced out of a year-long bear market at $3,100.

Nonetheless, comparing today’s Bitcoin market with that of 2013 is all but impossible. At the time, Mt. Gox was the only major exchange, itself imploding to cause a massive price crash. Many argue that Mt. Gox was itself responsible for the run to $1,300.

Other analysts are much more…

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Expecting a Spike in Bitcoin? Investors Say it May Take Time

Investors expecting a sudden surge in bitcoin’s price, after it underwent a technical adjustment three weeks ago that reduced the rate at which new coins are generated, may have to wait a few months, or perhaps a few years.

Bitcoin traded in narrow ranges after it went through a third so-called halving on May 11, which cut the rewards given to those who “mine” bitcoin to 6.25 new coins from 12.5.

There were some expectations that bitcoin would soar, similar to what happened after the two previous adjustments as the “halving” effectively decreased its supply.

The virtual currency has gained 11% since the adjustment, but it had more down days than up days and analysts said technical momentum overall was negative. In contrast, bitcoin had soared more than 40% from January this year until the “halving.”

On Thursday, bitcoin was at $9,783 BTC=BTSP. It breached $10,000 twice after the “halving” but retreated as it found tough resistance at that level.

“Bitcoin is on a see-saw, between bulls and bears,” said Nicholas Pelecanos, head of trading at NEM Ventures. “On one end, we have network data and technicals; the other, strong fundamentals and a correlation to U.S. stock indices.”

He added that bitcoin’s network data is flashing more bearish than bullish signals, as he expects further short-term selling.

Beyond the short term though, many investors expect a price surge.

The first halving, in November 2012, catalyzed a rally for bitcoin from about $10 to $1,160 in 12 months. The second halving, in July 2016, saw bitcoin jump more than 300%, from $650 to $2,800 within the same time span.

“It may take six to 12 months for investors to reap the rewards of post-halving price movements,” said Lennard Neo, head of research at Stack Funds.

“In reality, there is a significant time lag between the halving event and the establishment of renewed market equilibrium based on general supply and demand,” he added.

Since miners’ profits have contracted as block rewards decreased by 50%, the “halving” has affected the supply side of bitcoin and increased the time needed for miners to find their break-even point.

Once this is found, Stack’s Neo said, bitcoin is likely to realize its “halving-induced” price appreciation.

Investors are also banking on higher institutional demand to further propel the price of bitcoin. Fund flows into the biggest crypto asset managers have been robust in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.

“When we look at institutional inflows for our products and that of another asset manager, what you’re seeing are purchases that have now outstripped, for the first time, new bitcoins being created by 150%,” said Danny Masters, chairman of CoinShares, with $1 billion in crypto assets.

Michael Sonnenshein, managing director at Grayscale with $4 billion in crypto assets under management, said…

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Bloomberg: “Bitcoin will approach record high of about $20,000 this year”

The latest report from Bloomberg reveals that the company expects Bitcoin (BTC) to retest the record highs from 2017, and may even go as high as $28,000.

COVID-19 and institutions helping Bitcoin

The report suggests that COVID-19 has accelerated Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset, showing its strength amid declining equities. In addition, it points to the ever-increasing appetite from institutional investors, and Grayscale, or GBTC, in particular, which has been consuming about 25% of the the new supply:

“So far this year, its increasing AUM has consumed about 25% of new Bitcoin-mined coins vs. less than 10% in 2019. Our graphic depicts the rapidly rising 30-day average of GBTC AUM near 340,000 in Bitcoin equivalents, about 2% of total supply. About two years ago, it accounted for 1%.”

Narrowing GBTC/BTC premium. Source: Bloomberg.

Narrowing GBTC/BTC premium

Bloomberg finds the narrowing of GBTC/BTC premium a telling sign:

“The steadily declining premium in GBTC despite strong inflows indicates supply being taken off the market, and maturation. On a 30-day average basis, the Trust’s 20% premium over its underlying net asset value compares with the historical mean of 39%.”

Bitcoin moving upward with gold. Source: Bloomberg.

BTC to $20K or $28K?

The report says that “something needs to go really wrong” for Bitcoin not to increase in value. Then it states that it will approach a 2017 high of $20,000 and may even reach a new high of $28,000:

“Last year, the high was about $14,000, which would translate into almost double in 2020 if rotating within the recent band, and mean little in the big picture.”

Correlation between BTC and USDT. Source: Bloomberg.

According to the report, another major reason for…

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Adam Back: Bitcoin Price Could Skyrocket To $300,000 By 2025

Co-Founder and CEO of Blockstream Adam Back believes that Bitcoin could reach $300,000 in five years due to the current economic situation worldwide. In an interview, he also refuted the recent claims that he is the mysterious person behind BTC – Satoshi Nakamoto.

Bitcoin To $300,000 By 2025?

In his recent interview with Bloomberg, the popular cryptocurrency proponent admitted that he is mining bitcoins, but he’s not selling them. The reason why Back is not disposing of his coins could be attributed to his belief that the primary digital asset may increase to $300,000 in the next five years, without any additional adoption by institutional investors.

Adam Back
Adam Back. Source: Bloomberg

“It might not require additional institutional adoption because the current environment is causing more individuals to think about hedging. And retaining value when there’s a lot of money printing in the world.”- Back explained.

His rather optimistic prediction also compared Bitcoin’s position in the market to the roles of other investment opportunities in a future society altered by the COVID-19 pandemic.

More specifically, Back noted that bonds “may be overvalued” and that lots of people will work from home, hence making real-estate investments riskier. Therefore, this causes “people to think about the value of money and looking for ways to preserve money,” which could propel them towards Bitcoin.

Back also discussed the recent presentation from Goldman Sachs, in which the giant multinational investment bank said, “cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin are not an asset class.” He argued that the report showed “some misunderstandings about digital scarcity and what’s useful about Bitcoin. It indicates it’s still early in terms of the adoption curve,” he added.

Back: I’m Not Satoshi

The cryptocurrency community has seen an increased number of speculations lately that Adam Back is indeed Satoshi Nakamoto – the anonymous Bitcoin creator. While Back has been somewhat sarcastic on Twitter about those claims, he denied them during the interview.

However, he also mentioned that it’s better for the primary cryptocurrency if the identity of its creator remains a mystery:

“It’s generally viewed at this point as better that the founder of Bitcoin is not known because a lot of people have a hierarchical mindset. If you read about a technology, you try to figure out who is the CEO of a company, and people want to ask questions.

Because Bitcoin is more like digital gold, you wouldn’t want gold to have a founder. For Bitcoin to keep a commodity-like perception, I think it’s a very good thing that Satoshi stays out of the public.”

Featured image courtesy of Bloomberg

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Bitcoin’s Price Drops by 8% in Less Than 5 Minutes

Bitcoin’s price fell more than $800 in under five minutes on Tuesday, pushing the broader cryptocurrency market into the red.

The sell-off began at 14:45 UTC (10:45 a.m. ET) when the cryptocurrency was trading at highs above $10,137 and by 14:49 UTC, the price fell to $9,298. At press time, bitcoin is changing hands near $9,500, representing a 6.5% drop on the day, according to CoinDesk’s Bitcoin Price Index. On BitMEX, prices were as low as $8,600.

The sudden price drop may have trapped many traders on the wrong side of the market. Moreover, the market was looking strong following Monday’s convincing move above $10,000, and a few analysts were expecting bitcoin to continue rising toward $11,000.

However, buyers once again failed to keep prices above the $10,000 mark. The cryptocurrency has struggled multiple times over the past 12 months or so to establish a strong base above $10,000. The retreat, however, is unlikely to deter investors, who believe in bitcoin’s long-term value as a safe haven asset and a hedge against inflation.

Moreover, “HODLing” sentiment has remained strong despite the unprecedented price volatility seen in the past five months. Nearly 60% of bitcoin’s supply hasn’t changed hands in over a year, a likely sign investors are holding in expectation of gains, according to Glassnode.

The latest sell-off, however, is weighing over alternative cryptocurrencies. At press time, litecoin is down 5%, while Ethereum’s ether token is reporting a 6% daily loss. Other major cryptocurrencies like bitcoin cashbitcoin SV, and XRP are also flashing red.

Meanwhile, traditional markets are seeing mixed action. While the…

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Bitcoin Could Be About To Surge After Stock-To-Flow Update Revealed

Bitcoin has been struggling to break over the $10,000 per bitcoin level since its highly-anticipated supply squeeze—but that could be about to change.

The bitcoin price, up around 30% since the beginning of the year and on track to be one of the year’s best performing assets, has swung wildly over the last few months.

Now, one of the most closely-watched bitcoin analysts, an anonymous strategist who claims to be a member of an institutional investment team that manages around $100 billion in assets, has released an update to his so-called stock-to-flow model, suggesting the bitcoin price could be about to surge to around $100,000.

Widely-respected bitcoin analyst PlanB, who created the stock-to-flow bitcoin pricing model, revealed a chart update last night.

The update, which has been expected since bitcoin’s third supply halving last month, is thought to signal the beginning of the next 18-month bitcoin price cycle that puts bitcoin at almost $100,000 before 2021.

The stock-to-flow pricing model calculates a ratio based on the existing supply of an asset against how much is entering circulation.

Commodities such as gold–with the largest stock-to-flow ratio of 62, meaning it would take 62 years of gold production to get the current gold stock–have a higher stock-to-flow ratio and are valued by investors for their scarcity.

Silver has a stock-to-flow ratio of 22 years for its production to reach the current silver stock.

Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow ratio is now 50 following bitcoin’s third halving last month, which saw the number of the number of bitcoin rewarded to those that maintain the bitcoin network, called miners, cut by half—dropping from…

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Bitcoin rally

Is Bitcoin On Its Way To Finally Break $10K?

Another week has passed, and it has been nothing short of exciting on the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin went on to lose a serious chunk of its value as it plunged below $8,700 only to recover a few days later and touch $9,600. However, BTC is relatively indecisive over the past couple of days as it got rejected at that level, and it’s currently trading slightly below it around $9,400. 

If Bitcoin can climb back above this important resistance level, it may take another shot at the coveted $10,000 mark. As of yet, though, it appears that bulls are losing momentum and regrouping. 

Altcoins managed to catch a break while Bitcoin was plummeting, as some of them, including MATIC, Cardano, and a few others, marked notable increases. Bitcoin’s dominance remains rather intact, signaling that nothing has changed from a macro perspective. Ethereum was the winner during the past two days, as it managed to increase by 10%, reaching a 30-days high. 

The week was marked by news concerning institutional investors. First, new data revealed that Grayscale has been buying quite a lot of BTC. In fact, it bought 50% more than all the bitcoins mined over the past 100 days. 

At the same time, Coinbase acquired a leading cryptocurrency brokerage to further strengthen its institutional focus. The Winklevoss-owned exchange Gemini partnered up with Bitwage to launch a Bitcoin 401 (k) plan, while also teaming up with Samsung to integrate its mobile app in the tech giant’s blockchain wallet. 

In any case, it appears that smart money is becoming increasingly interested in the field, and it’s exciting to see what this will mean for Bitcoin going forward. 

Market Data

Market Cap: $263B | 24H Vol: $110B | BTC Dominance: 65.9%

BTC: $9,432.07 (-0.30%) | ETH: $220.69(+2.82%) | XRP: $0.198 (-0.19%)

cryptopostfriday

Wall Street Is Where You End Up When You Can’t Make it To Crypto: Winklevoss To Goldman Sachs. According to the prominent Bitcoin proponent Tyler Winklevoss, Wall Street is the place people end up when they can’t make it to crypto. This comes as a response to a recent report following a Goldman Sachs conference call on Bitcoin and Gold. 

Chris Dunn Trader’s Digest: Bitcoin To $150K Post-Halving, Crypto Investing Methodology, Tips, And More. Chriss Dunn is a well-known cryptocurrency YouTuber and a vocal participant in the community. He thinks that Bitcoin might reach $150,000 if we simply assume that it will gain 40% of what it gained after the previous halving. 

Tech Giant Samsung Will Integrate Gemini’s Mobile App On Its Blockchain Wallet. The tech giant Samsung will integrate Gemini’s mobile app into its blockchain wallet. This is a major step forward as it will now be particularly easy for Samsung users to buy and sell different cryptocurrencies. 

Gemini and Bitwage Combine to Launch Bitcoin 401(k). Gemini has partnered up with Bitwage to introduce what’s reportedly the world’s first Bitcoin 401k plan. It enables companies to provide their employees with the ability to invest in Bitcoin. 

Coinbase Strengthens Institutional Focus, Acquires Leading Crypto Brokerage. The leading US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase has acquired crypto brokerage Tagomi. This is intended to strengthen the exchange’s focus on institutional clients and paves the way for further adoption. 

Grayscale Is Buying More Bitcoin Than There Is Mined, Report Says. According to a recent report, Grayscale has bought 50% more Bitcoin than it was mined in the last 100 days. This signals a serious institutional interest in the field, and it’s interesting to see if it would impact Bitcoin’s price. 

Charts

This week we have a chart analysis of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Tezos, and Chainlink – click here for the full price analysis.

The post Is Bitcoin On Its Way To Finally Break $10K? The Crypto Weekly Market Update appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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Goldman Sachs: Cryptocurrencies ‘Are Not an Asset Class’

Goldman Sachs held an investor call Wednesday to discuss current policies for bitcoin, gold and inflation in the context of the COVID-19 crisis. The big takeaway? The stalwart investment bank is still no fan of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies.

slideshow released before the call cited hacks and other losses related to cryptocurrencies as well as their use to “abet illicit activities” as some potential liabilities.

Seven of Goldman’s 35 slides mention bitcoin, but the people on the call only discussed bitcoin for roughly five minutes at the end, with no questions taken after.

In the call materials, Goldman notes that while cryptocurrencies like bitcoin “have received enormous attention,” they “are not an asset class.”

Why? The reasons include bitcoin’s inherent lack of cash flow, unlike bonds, and its inability to generate earnings through exposure to global economic growth, according to the presentation. Goldman also notes bitcoin’s volatility, citing the recent drop to 12-month lows in early March. The price spiked nearly 5% to $9,200 a few hours before the call.

Some professional cryptocurrency analysts were less than impressed by Goldman’s analysis. “The criticisms were very cookie cutter, the type you’d expect if someone just read mainstream headlines,” said Ryan Watkins, bitcoin analyst at Messari and former investment banking analyst at Moelis & Company. “It’s like they didn’t fully diligence the asset.”

Goldman’s cash flow argument was particularly odd to Tom Masojada, co-founder of OVEX Digital Asset Exchange.

“Many investments that Goldman labels as ‘suitable for clients’ do not generate cash flows and are primarily dependent on whether someone is willing to pay a higher price at a later date,” he said on Twitter.

“One could argue bitcoin isn’t backed by anything, but to liken it to a game of hot potato ignores the subjective value such a novel asset provides,” said Kevin Kelly, former equity analyst at Bloomberg and co-founder of Delphi Digital, a cryptocurrency research firm that recently published a comprehensive report on bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s current value, according to Kelly, is backed by “the demand for an apolitical speculative asset that may or may not turn out to be one of the world’s most valuable safe havens.”

The two Goldman speakers on the call, its head of research and a Harvard economics professor, said several bitcoin forks, which they refer to as “nearly identical clones,” occupy three of the six largest cryptocurrencies by market value. With this, Goldman inferred that cryptocurrencies as a whole “are not a scarce resource,” according to the presentation.

This critique is “particularly eye roll worthy,” Watkins told CoinDesk. “Forks are their own assets and have nothing to do with bitcoin.”

In its conclusion, Goldman does…

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This Crypto Could Blow Bitcoin Out Of The Water This Year After 1,000% Gain—Here’s Why

Bitcoin, the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency by a wide margin, is treading water after rallying hard since its March crash.

The bitcoin price failed to breach $10,000 last week and has been trending downward since—despite a raft of bullish signals.

Now, as a number of smaller cryptocurrencies and bitcoin rivals make big gains, one tiny token has soared over 1,000% since its March lows.

Theta, the primary cryptocurrency token of the Theta decentralized video streaming network, has added over 1,000% to its price since the bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market crashed in March, according to CoinMarketCap data.

Theta’s massive gains so far this year eclipse bitcoin’s 120% rally since the March coronavirus-induced crash—even as bitcoin looks on track to be one of the best bets of 2020.

The theta mega-rally comes as rumors swirl the San Francisco-based Theta Labs is poised to announce a partnership with YouTube-owner Google on Wednesday, May 27.

Theta Labs did not respond to a request for comment.

The Theta Network bills itself as a “decentralized streaming video protocol” powered by bitcoin’s blockchain technology and is designed to give “users the opportunity to contribute their excess bandwidth and computing resources in exchange for token rewards.”

A partnership with search giant Google, which recently launched the cloud gaming service Stadia, could be seen as an endorsement of Theta Labs’ decentralized video infrastructure and business model.

Earlier this month, it was revealed Theta.tv will be included on future Samsung Galaxy phones with the software expected to be added to some 75 million existing devices.

“Our groundbreaking approach to streaming is a perfect fit for Samsung’s worldwide user base,” Theta Labs co-founder and chief executive Mitch Liu said at the time.

“It’s a huge step toward our goal of making Theta a global infrastructure for video content and data delivery.”

Meanwhile, the world’s largest bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchange Binance has revealed it will support Theta’s upcoming mainnet upgrade. Binance also announced today it will launch a theta-U.S. dollar perpetual trading contract with up to 50-times leverage.

Similar bitcoin and crypto exchange announcements of support have boosted smaller cryptocurrencies in recent weeks, indicating the market is desperate for clearer direction.

Some bitcoin and cryptocurrency watchers have suggested a…

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