What a difference a few months can make. It seems like a lifetime ago that Arthur Hayes, CEO of cryptocurrency derivatives platform BitMEX, predicted that the bitcoin price could reach $50,000 in 2018. In fact, it has been less than six months, though the events that have occurred during that interlude have been sufficient for Hayes to slash his short-term crypto forecast by more than 95 percent.
CCN reported earlier this week that Hayes, a former Citigroup trader, is now predicting that the bitcoin downtrend could last another 18 months, mirroring the “nuclear bear market” the crypto industry experienced in 2014 and 2015. Writing in Friday’s edition of the BitMEX Crypto Trader Digest, Hayes doubled down on that portentous outlook.
While chart-watchers often treat bear markets as beginning as soon as an asset dips below its cyclical peak, Hayes said that a better strategy may be to mark the beginning of the bear market as the date at which the bitcoin price falls below its 200-day moving average (DMA). By this metric, bitcoin entered bearish territory on March 12 when it was priced at $9,152 and has only seen a 37 percent decline since dropping below the 200 DMA…
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