Bitcoin Price Analysis: Crucial Moment For BTC After Closing Under 150-Day Support, Bear Market Inbound?

Bitcoin’s price has just closed underneath the primary channel support (yellow line) on the daily chart for the first time since April 26, 2020 – over 151 days ago.

This could spell doom for the leading crypto’s short to mid-term prospects unless significant bullish volume arrives to drive BTC back into the up-trending channel.

According to data by Coinmarketcap, the global crypto market cap has also fallen back under $325 billion and set a new lower high for the first time since the extreme Coronavirus crash in March 2020 (see red arrow). This is usually a strong indication that the market has now turned favorably bearish.

crypto market capital
Chart by Coinmarketcap

BTC Price Levels to Watch in the Short-term

On the daily BTC/USD chart, we can see that the price is hovering above the critical support-resistance zone (green) at around $10,200 – $10,000.

This particular area is also reinforced by the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which previously acted as a strong resistance for Bitcoin back in May and June this year.

Bullish traders are currently using this solid foothold to attempt a re-entry back into the main channel above $10,380.

This is a crucial moment for BTC. Failing to break this resistance will likely result in a lack of confidence in the leading asset and further downside towards $10,000 and even the unfilled CME gap below at $9,665 – $9,925.

If this does happen, the 200-EMA (red line) at $9,800 will likely be one of the first supports to help slow down the decline. From there, the bottom of the CME gap at $9,665 should also provide a rebound opportunity for bulls once it finally closes. Other supports lower down can be found at $9,160 and the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $8,867.

The daily RSI adds further confirmation that Bitcoin’s price will likely continue to decline. There’s been a noticeable divergence between the price action and the RSI since August 1 (yellow arrow on RSI), which usually indicates that the trend is weakening. The daily MACD is also decidedly bearish, with selling volume appearing on the histogram as well as a bearish divergence between the 12 and 24 moving averages.

Total market capital: $329 billion

Bitcoin market capital: $190 billion

Bitcoin dominance: 57.9%

*Data by Coingecko.

Bitstamp BTC/USD Daily Chart

bitcoin trading
BTC/USD chart via Tradingview

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Document Leak Suggests Major Banks Facilitated Transfer of $2 Trillion in Dirty Money – 10x Current Bitcoin’s Market Cap

Recently surfaced FinCEN documents revealed that some giant banks have knowingly transmitted trillions of dollars in suspicious transactions from Ponzi schemes and terrorist organizations. Names such as HSBC, Standard Chartered, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, and more, have been collecting significant fees while flying under the radar for years.

FinCEN Documents Reveal Big Banks’ Actions

BuzzFeed reported on September 20th about receiving thousands of documents of suspicious activity reports (known as SARs) sent from banks to the US Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). Banks are required to provide SARs in case of evidence of suspicious activity.

Although FinCEN sends the SARs to law enforcement agencies for further review, the entity doesn’t enforce the banks to seize operating with suspicious individuals or companies.

Nevertheless, some giant banks, including HSBC and Standard Chartered, who were already prosecuted or fined for financial misconduct, have continued to transfer money for suspected criminals.

HSBC Building. Source: Flickr.

The Corruption Within The Legitimate System

BuzzFeed’s investigations indicated that HSBC’s Hong Kong branch allowed a known Ponzi scheme dubbed WCM777 to move more than $15 million even after three states banned its operations. The total amount stolen from investors is over $80 million, according to authorities. The scam’s owner used the funds to buy two golf courses, a 7,000 Sq.Ft. mansion, and a 40-carat diamond.

Standard Chartered transferred significant amounts on behalf of a Dubai-based company accused of laundering cash for the Taliban called Al Zarooni Exchange.

Some US giants such as Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, and American Express “collectively processed millions of dollars in transactions for the family of Viktor Khrapunov.”

Khrapunov is the former mayor of Kazakhstan’s most populated city who fled the country after Interpol issued a Red Notice for his arrest. Later on, Khrapunov was convicted in absentia on charges, including bribe-taking and defrauding the city through public property sales.

“The FinCEN Files expose an underlying truth of the modern era: the networks through which dirty money traverse the world have become vital arteries of the global economy. They enable a shadow financial system so wide-ranging and unchecked that it has become inextricable from the so-called legitimate economy. Banks with household names have helped to make it so.” – concluded BuzzFeed.

Former suspicious transactions investigator Martin Woods said that “some of these people in those crisp white shirts in their sharp suits are feeding off the tragedy of people dying all over the world.”

The leaked SAR documents have been submitted to FinCEN between 2000 and 2017 and cover transactions worth about $2 trillion.

Where’s Bitcoin’s Place?

Ever since Bitcoin began gaining traction a few years ago, people outside of the cryptocurrency field have often criticized the asset claiming that it enables criminals to transfer funds anonymously. Those individuals argue that the unregulated nature of cryptocurrency is to blame.

Interestingly, FinCEN Director Kenneth Blanco urged the US to enforce strict regulations on digital asset usage to minimize the adverse impact.

However, numerous reports compiled on the matter have indicated that Bitcoin is not as frequently employed for illicit transactions as most people tend to believe. In fact, this one showed that only 0.5% of all BTC transactions are linked to illegal activities.

The leaked FinCEN documents could further reaffirm the narrative that fiat currencies are still way more utilized for illicit transactions.

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To Stake or Not to Stake, ETH 2.0 Testers Weigh In

Testnets serve a very good purpose, and that is to determine whether the technology is capable of running on a much broader scale. For Ethereum, the Medalla testnet has been in operation and growing in terms of staked ETH and validators since early August.

Not all validators have been happy with the experience, however, and one has stated that he has no intention of staking on Beacon Chain when it gets launched.

Reasons not to Stake

Beacon Chain validator Chase Wright has launched a scathing thread on twitter explaining why he has no intention of staking real ETH after participating in the testnet.

There have been several Ethereum 2.0 test networks, including Onyx, Witti, Altona, and Medalla is the latest and final one. Wright stated that he has done extensive testing on multiple networks using multiple clients and has become highly familiar with their operation.

Firstly he has claimed that average Medalla validators have yet to profit due to a bug in a client, the most popular for testing is Prysm, which has over 90% of the share. Incensed that developers have not fixed the bug, he added that there has yet to be a fork on Beacon Chain, and forking is not the solution anyway.

“When Vitalik’s answer to what do we do when ETH2 is attacked is “fork” but nobody wants to demonstrate what a fork for ETH2 looks like…yikes…”

He continued the expletive-laden tirade adding that there was little interoperability between different clients and nodes and that the whole thing seems to be in a rush to deliver. There were comments about centralization with very few nodes but thousands of validators. reports that there are 58,800 validators while says that there are 473 active peers for the testnet.

There was also some angst against the voting and staking rewards mechanism.

Reasons to Stake

Lead Ethereum developer Danny Ryan responded to the thread acknowledging the risks with early staking but rebutting most of the points.

“The testnet is actually very decentralized. Medalla has 1000+ nodes, probably an order of magnitude more than any other PoS testnet.”

He added that client voting processes have improved over the past couple of months and disagreed with the comments about rushed shipping.

Another thread was started by Eth Gas Station creator, ‘@latetot,’ using exactly the same opening but arguing why he will be staking on Beacon Chain.

He stated that the response to the first Medalla bug was very fast, and validators have been running without intervention or problems for weeks. He added that The ETH 2.0 client teams have been extremely responsive and collaborative to all community members.

“My ETH can either lie dormant in a cold wallet earning no income, staked in a smart contract with its own risk of loss, or staked as a ETH2.0 validator. The audits, formal verification, and scrutiny of the ETH2.0 contracts give me strong confidence in the safety of ETH2.0.”

So there you have it, both sides of the staking fence. By the time Beacon Chain is finally rolled out, these early teething problems will have been addressed, and it is likely to be the biggest shakeup to the Ethereum network since its inception.

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Waves vs Currents: How the Hashpower Market Can Complement Altcoins 

[Featured Content]

Last month, Bitcoin’s difficulty and hashrate hit an all-time high. And while some experts argue increasing hashrate is a bullish price signal, others contend a strong correlation between the two has never existed.

Regardless, companies are capitalizing on the value placed on hash power, recognizing not only the varied usage hash power possesses beyond mining, but also the natural evolution of trading options for investors.

The Importance of Hash Power

Though analysts can’t agree on the relationship between hashrate and pricing, they can agree on the importance of hash power itself.

At the beginning of 2020, exchanges were expanding their product offerings and entering the world of derivatives. Recently, a number of start-ups entered the derivatives market as well – such as Global Hashpower Exchange, an exchange dedicated purely to hash power futures contracts.

“We see hash power as more than the ‘generator’ that powers data mining. It’s an essential key for a rapidly expanding array of ‘big data’ services, such as artificial intelligence, data analysis, and security protocols,” says Eno Chen, CEO of Global Hashpower Exchange.

But as the use of hash power grows, getting traders to practice trading it as a commodity will take time to adopt.

“I think all traders want options. Just as the stock market expanded into commodities and bonds, crypto traders are growing tired of simply buying, holding, and selling coins. Investors can decide if they want to invest in waves or currents,” says Chen. “Investing in hashpower futures is like catching a current that will likely carry you to your financial goals, while day trading coins is closer to surfing waves in pursuit of short-term financial wins. The strategies complement each other and both have a place in a balanced investment portfolio.”

Global Hashpower Exchange is currently giving new users a free 200 USDT deposit and 10 free trades with the promo code “Hashpower” on their site.


Trading Hash Power

GHPEX allows users to trade futures contracts where the underlying asset is a network’s hashrate. This could be used as a means of diversifying a cryptocurrency portfolio as the correlation between price and hashrate is not necessarily relevant.

Furthermore, the exchange would also allow users to trade with a leverage of up to 10x. Naturally, leveraged trading can increase your profits but it can also cause massive and quick loss of capital. It’s not recommended for people without sufficient market experience and you should never invest more than you can afford to lose.

The official website claims that the company is fully regulated by the FCA and CySec and that users’ funds are protected by industry-leading security protocols.

In terms of deposits, users can use BTC, ETH, and USDT. The same is true for withdrawals. The base currency and user balance are displayed in USDT. There’s a flat $1 trading fee per contract traded.

According to the FAQ section, GHPEX uses a combination of cold and hot wallet storage to safeguard the funds of investors.

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Market Watch: Bitcoin Tumbles to $10,130 as Equity Markets Finish in Deep Red

After reclaiming some ground yesterday, Bitcoin has returned to its recent bearish trend by dropping below $10,300. Most altcoins follow with some notable price dips, resulting in a near $10 billion evaporated from the total market cap.

Bitcoin Dips Below $10,300

As reported yesterday, the primary cryptocurrency recovered some of the recent losses and traded around the previous 2020 high from February at $10,500. However, the asset couldn’t maintain its position and began free-falling once again.

In just a few hours, BTC went from its daily high of above $10,500 to its intraday bottom of $10,130 (on Binance). Since then, the digital asset has recovered some ground and is trading now just around $10,300.

Bitcoin’s current position places it close to the support level at $10,290. If BTC further breaks below, it could head towards $10,200 and the psychological $10,000.

BTC/USD. Source: TradingView

Adverse price developments are evident among most financial markets. Gold, which typically performs similarly to Bitcoin, dipped from its high of $1,900 per ounce to about $1,850.

The most prominent Wall Street stock market indexes also closed in the red yesterday’s trading session. The S&P 500 went down by 2.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 2%, and Nasdaq lost the most value (-3%).

Red Dominates The Altcoin Market

Most alts bleed out today. Ethereum has declined by nearly 4% and it trades at $325. Ripple (-3%) fights to stay above $0.22. Bitcoin Cash, Binance Coin, Coin, and Litecoin have also dropped by about 3%.

Cryptocurrency Market Overview. Source:

Some lower-cap alts have decreased by double-digit percentages. DigiByte (-18%), Ren (-15%), Orchid (-13%), Reserve Rights (-12%), UMA (-12), OMG Network (-10.5), and Algorand (-10%) lead the way.

A few coins trade in the green as well. Helium has surged by 40% after being listed on the leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance. Uniswap (13%) and HedgeTrade (10%) follow.

Ultimately, though, the crypto market cap has dropped from yesterday’s peak at $332 billion to $325 billion.

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Venezuela Creates a “Digital Mining Pool” to Control All of the Country’s Hash Power

The Mining industry in Venezuela now has its own regulatory framework. The National Superintendence of Cryptoactives and other Related Activities published on Monday the “Providence that regulates the activities related to the use, import, commercialization of Digital Mining equipment.”

The legal instrument appeared in Official Gazette No. 41,969 and is already in effect. It would be the first law specifically created to regulate the cryptocurrency mining sector in a country… But not everything is as good as it looks.

One Point for Extreme Centralization of a Decentralized Project

The legal instrument mandates all miners, assemblers, or providers of mining services to join a Special Registry of Miners. This is a fundamental requirement for obtaining the necessary licenses to carry out the activity legally.

Also, a “National Digital Mining Pool” is created by law to bring together all the independent miners who live in the country. Venezuela is currently the Latin American country with the most hash power, the most adoption, and the most trading activity. The law also says that the Venezuelan government may grant benefits, incentives, and propose exemptions to encourage digital miners to join the national pool.

However, the coin has an ugly side —a very ugly one. Every Venezuelan who engages in the activity is unable to choose which pool to join since from today onwards, they must mine for the government’s pool unless they are willing to pay hefty fines:

Article 19. Users who engage in digital mining without being connected to the National Digital Mining Pool will be subject to the measures, infractions, and sanctions set by the Constituent Decree on the Integral Cryptoactive System.

Similarly, the document now establishes that the creation of mining farms will be done “under the technical and professional supervision of its personnel.” In this way, Sunacrip officials could have greater personal control over new mining ventures.

Venezuela Always Sparks Debate with its Decisions

The news sparked controversial reactions from experts in the field. Venezuela is one of the most corrupt countries in the world, and giving the state control over mining activity and “profit distribution ” generated by it could potentially harm all Venezuelan miners whose earnings would now be controlled by a government entity.

However, there is a positive side: Although crypto mining was never illegal – as some media say – the truth is that it has been persecuted for a long time. Perhaps this new legal order will put an end to this period of uncertainty for the industry… That is, assuming that the miners feel comfortable with giving control of their business to the Venezuelan government.

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After Losing 7%, Ripple Struggles To Maintain Previous Support From September (XRP Price Analysis)

  • XRP dropped by 4.5% over the past week as it trades at $0.232 today.
  • The coin returned to the support at the .618 Fib Retracement, which supported the market in early September.
  • Against Bitcoin, XRP is attempting to keep itself above the 2200 SAT level.

XRP/USD – Market Returns To Early September Support

Key Support Levels: $0.228, $0.22, $0.215.
Key Resistance Levels: $0.235, $244, $0.257.

XRP fell beneath a rising trend line on Monday as it collapsed below the 100-days and 200-days EMA to return to the .618 Fib Retracement support at $0.228. This level had prevented the market from slipping further during the early September decline, and a break beneath here is likely to cause XRP to unwind toward $0.2. It’s currently down about 7% in the past two days.

Before breaking beneath the rising trend line, XRP was slowly grinding higher but was unable to overcome resistance at $0.257 (bearish .3282 Fib Retracement). This will now be the level to break if XRP would like to begin any sort of bullish momentum.

XRP/USD Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

XRP-USD Short Term Price Prediction

If the sellers break the $0.228 level (.618 Fib Retracement), the first level of support beneath lies at $0.22. This is followed by support at $0.215 (downside 1.272 Fib Extension), $0.21, $0.206 (downside 1.414 Fib Extension), and $0.2.

On the other side, the first level of resistance lies at $0.235 (200-days EMA). This is followed by resistance at $0.244 (100-days EMA), $0.257 (bearish .382 Fib), and $0.266 (bearish .5 Fib).

XRP/BTC – Buyers Attempting To Defend 2200 SAT

Key Support Levels: 2200 SAT, 2170 SAT, 2111 SAT.
Key Resistance Levels: 2250 SAT, 2300 SAT, 2333 SAT.

The situation is quite troublesome against Bitcoin. In early September, the market found support at the 2275 SAT level. However, last week XRP penetrated beneath this support and fell further below the 2250 SAT.

Over the past couple of days, XRP continued to fall until support was found at the 2200 SAT level yesterday.

XRP/BTC Daily Chart. Source: TradingView

XRP-BTC Short Term Price Prediction

If the sellers break beneath 2200 SAT, the first level of support lies at 2170 SAT (downside 1.414 Fib Extension). This is followed by support at 2111 SAT (downside 1.618 Fib Extension), 2070 SAT, and 2000 SAT.

On the other side, the first level of resistance lies at 2250 SAT. Above this resistance lies at 2300 SAT, 2333 SAT, and 2400 SAT.

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Introducing OneSwap: On-Chain One-Stop Trading Platform

[Featured Content]

Decentralized Finance (DeFi) took the crypto field by a storm in 2020. The total value locked in various DeFi protocols is just under $10 billion, at the time of this writing.

If this doesn’t sound impressive, consider the fact that this number was just about $570 million in March. In other words, the market grew by an astounding 1607%.

Much of it was led by Uniswap, being the leading automated market maker and decentralized exchange. However, as the market matures, new solutions are coming to light and some of them aim to bring more than what Uniswap’s currently offering.

One protocol of the kind is OneSwap.

What is OneSwap and How is it Different?

OneSwap is a trading service platform based on the permissionless listing of decentralized exchanges (DEX). It also provides the good practices of automated market maker (AMM) projects, while also introducing an on-chain order book on the basis of the CFMM model to further improve the experience for AMM traders.

This particular combination provides users with the convenience of limit trading orders – something that Uniswap lacks and it also enhances the overall liquidity of digital assets.

The platform features an interactive and intuitive trading interface as well as a one-click currency issuance tool in the OneSwap Wallet which comes along with it.

Apart from the built-in wallet, the platform also comes with token repurchase and burn functionalities, on-chain governance, mining incentives, candlestick charts, and a depth map.

The public beta started on September 8th, featuring yield farming and transaction mining, while the official launch was on September 19th.

At the time of this writing, Oneswap boasts a total trading volume of more than $7.4 million since launch, where the total liquidity is around $36million.


OneSwap’s Architecture

Another important thing to discuss is the architecture of the protocol. OneSwap, deployed on each blockchain, comes with a series of capital pools. They are referred to with the transaction pair contract.

Each contract consists of three parts. Namely, these are the on-chain order book, the CPMM model which is the constant product market maker providing liquidity for that contract, and the equity tokens that record the privileges of the liquidity providers.

As soon as the liquidity provider injects digital assets in the capital pool of the given Pair contract, the latter will mint new equity tokens for the liquidity providers. The number of these tokens is based on the current size of the pool, as well as on the total amount of equity tokens that have been issued, as well as the current injections.

On the other hand, when the liquidity provider wants to retrieve their funds, the Pair contract is going to return the funds according to the corresponding proportion of the equity tokens and burn those equity tokens.

The ONES Token

OneSwap also has its ERC20-based governance token issued on Ethereum’s network and it’s called ONES.

It’s a deflationary token and according to the whitepaper, 40% of the transaction fees that are generated on the platform will be used to repurchase and burn ONES. This happens automatically and the burn goes through the BuyBack.

In addition, the on-chain governance of OneSwap happens through proposals and community voting where users who have enough ONES tokens (more than 1% of the total supply) can bring proposals up for discussion and votes. Any user who holds the token can vote against or for the proposal.

ONES now has been listed on CoinEx, Lbank, and MXC.


In general, OneSwap looks like an interesting project to consider in the current DeFi landscape. It does bring a few new exciting features, while also coming with the expected stack of technology that users are already accustomed to.

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Payiza is Launching DLT-based Digital Banking Platform

[PRESS RELEASE – Please Read Disclaimer]

Imagine an emergency where the funds you need to pay are available ‘only in crypto’. Your loved one’s life is at stake but you’ve got a little fiat to pay and very less time to sell your crypto for fiat and then pay for the service.!

Horrible, Right.!? That’s where Payiza emerged as an ultimate solution.

Payiza, a DLT-based digital banking platform works super cool and simple in both – fiat and crypto. Much similar to any banking applications such as Google Pay in India that works only in fiat for all your daily needs, Payiza offers you the facility of spending virtual currency as well as your national currency by just using one Payiza application.

But What is Payiza App?

Payiza brings you the world’s First DLT (Distributed Ledger Technology)-based global banking platform. It simplifies the process of Mobile top-up, Money Payout, Fiat, and CryptoCurrency. Besides, it also offers additional buying and selling features that facilitate the trade of cryptocurrency, all in one single platform.

It believes that Technology must be integrated with simplicity. Payiza, therefore, is offering digital banking services to worldwide users. It is the first-ever NEO and Crypto Banking connected platform with a global network of 600+ mobile operators spread across 143 countries.


Key Features of Payiza App

  1. Use Your Crypto Money Via QR And Wallet; Payiza enables Global QR Code-based payments. In near future, you can use your crypto money at any shopping outlet in the world to make payments.
  2. Universal QR Code For Merchants For One-Stop Payments: Generate an All-In-One QR Code to facilitate mobile payments for your outlet.
  3. The Safest Cryptocurrency Trading Platform: Payiza offers seamless cryptocurrency trade with more than 500 cryptos to choose from and support for 85 currencies.
  4. The Fastest Global Banking Platform: Payiza integrates global banking for bank accounts in more than 50 countries. Send your money across the world within seconds.
  5. Fiat Banking for Crypto Made Easy: Use Payiza for instant money transfer into your account via fiat banking at zero additional costs.

At Payiza, users can avail of three connected features – your bank account, your crypto wallet account, and a unique Payiza virtual wallet account. To pay for any service in crypto, you only need to top up your Payiza virtual wallet account and it automatically converts your crypto into fiat and pays for the service.

In simple terms, you can use your crypto to pay for utility bills  through Payiza Application. You can get rid of getting the buyers to sell your crypto with the best price and let Payiza do the rest for you.

What Can You Do Using Payiza App?

It has strongly built itself as the best global banking platform for multi-currency transfers, money exchange, bill payments, storage, trade, buying, and selling of cryptocurrencies. You can Sign Up for Payiza using this link – and you can;

  1. Deposit fiat currency to Payiza wallet
  2. Deposit cryptocurrency to Payiza wallet
  3. Convert one fiat currency to another fiat currency
  4. Convert cryptocurrency to fiat currency
  5. Get access to Virtual Debit Card
  6. Convert cryptocurrency inside the Payiza wallet to local fiat currency and withdraw the money from the Payiza wallet to a Local bank account
  7. Internal transfer (Payiza wallet to a bank account)
  8. Transfer local currency to payiza virtual bank account
  9. Withdraw fiat money from Payiza wallet to local bank Account
  10. Automatic generating of virtual bank accounts for signup users

The Team

There’s a statement that says; “without a solid foundation, you’ll have trouble creating anything of value” And Payiza is led by experts and veteran profiles of the crypto & blockchain industry,who are well-versed with blockchain tech, virtual currency, and digital payment industry.

Mr.Mo Akram – Chief Technology Officer [CTO]

Interestingly, Mr. Akram has and is building the best blockchain solutions by leading one of the finest teams of blockchain wizzes. He has also been assisting the fundamental working architectures of crypto exchanges and platforms. Mr.Akram is currently heading Payiza as Chief Technical Officer (CTO).

Bibin Babu – Chief Executive Officer [CEO]

As a 1st Gen Entrepreneur, Mr.Bibin Babu has built Asia’s first Blockchain Experience Centre. He has ranked amongst Top 5 whiz kids in India. Mr.Bibin has vast experience of managing corporate affairs in software development and robotics.

Don Chancellor – Vice President, Africa

Dr. Chancellor is the Founder of AFRICUNIA BANK. As an IBM certified Blockchain Expert he is one of the early adopters and holders of Bitcoin. Though more inclined to the Medical Profession but coming from the backdrop and admixture of the Medical and Banking/Financial family, he is armed with the art of both worlds and thus lays acclaim to many years of practical experiences in related fields. While studying Medicine & Surgery, he single-handedly spearheaded the operations of FASTCASHIER EUROPE LIMITED, now renamed ZeroPay as its Managing Director in charge of the Europe Continent.

Stuart Schade – Blockchain Advisor

Currently, Stuart is the Founder of 4 companies including Apprema Pty LTD, Ntsr Pty ltd, Schaelec Pty ltd, and Masterhash LLC. Stuart works with the executive team to investigate new business opportunities around the company’s business needs.

This platform with all these features is available at just a click of a button. You only need to create an account with your basic details and hassle-free KYC registration.

You can connect with Payiza on Social media @payizamoney

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MicroStrategy’s $425 Million Worth of Bitcoin Purchase: What Was the Real Impact?

MicroStrategy’s recent purchase of $425 million worth of Bitcoin rapidly grasped the community’s attention. More specifically, people wonder if, what, or how much was the impact on BTC’s price and different theories emerge frequently.

Take-One: MicroStrategy Buys BTC

The large NASDAQ-listed company providing business intelligence, mobile software, and cloud-based services purchased its first batch of $250 million worth of Bitcoin in August. Merely a month later, MicroStrategy doubled-down on its investment by buying $175 million more of BTC.

Along with the massive purchase, the company’s founder and CEO, Michael Saylor, completed a one-eighty transformation. Back in 2013, he predicted (wrongly) Bitcoin’s death, while in 2020, he named the primary cryptocurrency a “legitimate investment asset.”

Since then, Saylor has continued highlighting BTC’s merits. In fact, he may have become a Bitcoin maximalist. Just yesterday, he outlined a major difference between “crypto-asset networks like Bitcoin” and “crypto-application networks like Ethereum and stablecoins.”

Moreover, he posted a chart of the “real Bitcoin dominance index,” displaying 93.5%. This is the metric reviewing BTC’s market share compared to all other proof-of-work-based cryptocurrencies attempting to serve as money.

Bitcoin Real Dominance Index. Source: BitcoinDominance

Take-Two: Price Speculations Begin

Following such a sizeable purchase from a Wall Street trading company, the community began speculating regarding potential price effects. After all, MicroStrategy bought nearly 0.2% of all bitcoins to ever exist in just a month.

However, BTC’s price remained relatively calm. There were no sharp spikes or breakdowns. Or, maybe only on the surface. According to popular on-chain market analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin increased by 6.4% ($700.)

Nevertheless, he believes that BTC is in an era of “speculative trading dominance on unregulated derivatives markets” and “inorganic” swings of $4,000 are achievable by whales. In contrast, a $700 up-movement by an “organic spot buy will be lost in technical short term charts.”

Later on, FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried estimated that the price impact over a few days would be around 5%. However, he noted that “if you are not looking for it, you’d miss it. If you *are* looking for it, it’s obvious, though.” He based his math on previous outcomes from sharp price drops, including the mid-March sell-offs.

Take-Three: The ‘What Could Have Been’ Angle

While most of the community focuses on whether or not BTC increased in value, a popular Bitcoin proponent Pierre Rochard broached another angle.

“The biggest problem in economics is that we can’t see the counter-factual, where Saylor did not buy, and the price is $9,000 today.”

Meaning that there’s no way to know what could have happened if MicroStrategy’s CEO hadn’t bought 0.18% of BTC’s total supply in a month. Additionally, the precise timing of the purchases is still unclear, making it rather difficult to draw definitive conclusions.

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